Question

Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?

Resolved :No

53 comments53

Total Forecasters318

Community Prediction0.4%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.4%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

94.3

Community Peer Score

5.4

median 0.4%mean 1.4%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

China Warned About US Nuclear Missile Test: Pentagon

Newsweek•Nov 13, 2024

Could Zelensky really go nuclear and build a ‘dirty bomb’ if Trump ends US support of Ukraine?

Independent•Nov 15, 2024

North Korea Plans to Expand Nuclear Arsenal

•Nov 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%