Question

Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?

Resolved :No

53 comments53

Total Forecasters318

Community Prediction0%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.4%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

94.3

Community Peer Score

5.4

median 0.4%mean 1.4%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

America’s Strangest Tourist Destination

Atlantic•Oct 25, 2024

Michiko’s story: How a Japanese girl survived an atomic bomb

Al Jazeera•Oct 27, 2024

Humanity Strays Dangerously Close to the Nuclear Trigger

Lew Rockwell•Oct 28, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%