Question

Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?

Resolved :No0.4%

53 comments53

Total Forecasters318

Community Prediction0.4% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.4%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

94.3

Community Peer Score

5.4

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Jun 22, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

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Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

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