Question

Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?

Resolved :No

53 comments53

Total Forecasters318

Community Prediction0.4%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.4%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

94.3

Community Peer Score

5.4

median 0.4%mean 1.4%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

China Warned About US Nuclear Missile Test: Pentagon

Newsweek•Nov 13, 2024

Ukraine Could Build its Own Nuclear Bombs in Months: Report

Breitbart•Nov 14, 2024

Could Zelensky really go nuclear and build a ‘dirty bomb’ if Trump ends US support of Ukraine?

Independent•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%