Question

Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?

Resolved :No0.4%

53 comments53

Total Forecasters318

Community Prediction0.4% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.4%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

94.3

Community Peer Score

5.4

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

United States

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

How To Prepare for Nuclear War

Lew Rockwell•Dec 13, 2024

Joe Biden Under Pressure To Take Away Donald Trump's Nuclear War Power

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Japanese atomic bomb survivor warns nuclear taboo is at risk in Nobel Peace Prize speech

NBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

0.7%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

United States

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

How To Prepare for Nuclear War

Lew Rockwell•Dec 13, 2024

Joe Biden Under Pressure To Take Away Donald Trump's Nuclear War Power

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Japanese atomic bomb survivor warns nuclear taboo is at risk in Nobel Peace Prize speech

NBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

0.7%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?

Make a Prediction

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Comments

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?