M

Question

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

8
7
Total Forecasters53
Community Prediction28%

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 28%
median 28.0%mean 35.3%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Authors:
Metaculus-PartnersAlyssaStevens
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
China
United States
Nuclear weapons testing
Peaceful nuclear explosion
Russia

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