Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

We're considering changes to the Quarterly Cup and want to hear from you, take our short survey to share your thoughts and help shape future iterations of the Cup.

M

Question

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

8
7
Total Forecasters53
Community Prediction28% (15% - 37%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 28%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Metaculus-PartnersAlyssaStevens
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
China
United States
Nuclear weapons testing
Peaceful nuclear explosion
Russia

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