Question

Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?

Resolved :No0.1%

19 comments19

Total Forecasters202

Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

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95.1

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3.4

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

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If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

20.9%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

0.7%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Kim Jong-un

United States

Science

How To Prepare for Nuclear War

Lew Rockwell•Dec 13, 2024

Joe Biden Under Pressure To Take Away Donald Trump's Nuclear War Power

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Would the US Administration really endanger the Entire planet? - Global Research

Global Research•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

20.9%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

0.7%

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Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?

Make a Prediction

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Comments

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?