Question

Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?

Resolved :No0.1%

19 comments19

Total Forecasters202

Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

95.1

Community Peer Score

3.4

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Jun 25, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

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If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

15%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

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