Question

Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?

Resolved :No

3 comments3

Total Forecasters97

Community Prediction0.1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

97.9

Community Peer Score

2.6

median 0.1%mean 4.2%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

How many HEMP attacks will occur by 2030, if at least one does?

3.87

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

39.9%

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Iran-linked attacks against US skyrocket by 600% since Oct 2023 Hamas attack on Israel: report

FOX News•Nov 13, 2024

Ukraine Could Build its Own Nuclear Bombs in Months: Report

Breitbart•Nov 14, 2024

Kremlin Warns 'Inevitable Escalation' Over Long Range Missile Strikes

Breitbart•Nov 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many HEMP attacks will occur by 2030, if at least one does?

3.87

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

39.9%