Question

Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?

Resolved :No

3 comments3

Total Forecasters97

Community Prediction0%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

97.9

Community Peer Score

2.6

median 0.1%mean 4.2%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

How many HEMP attacks will occur by 2030, if at least one does?

3.87

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

40%

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Humanity Strays Dangerously Close to the Nuclear Trigger

Lew Rockwell•Oct 28, 2024

Cybercriminals Pose a Greater Threat of Disruptive US Election Hacks Than Russia or China

Wired•Oct 28, 2024

China will double its nuclear arsenal to over 1,000 warheads by 2030, according to US intelligence

FOX News•Oct 28, 2024

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How many HEMP attacks will occur by 2030, if at least one does?

3.87

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

40%