Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?

Resolved :12.5k12.7k
15
7
Total Forecasters119
Community Prediction12.7k (12.1k - 13.3k)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<0
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>50k
...
...
...
...
...
0.5%
12.09k
12.67k
13.32k
0.1%

What was the final result?12.5k

Community Baseline Score
149.6
Community Peer Score
15.0
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Metaculus-PartnersAlyssaStevens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Arms Control Association
Federation of American Scientists
Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

Comments

? comments