Question

Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?

Resolved :No0.2%

18 comments18

Total Forecasters201

Community Prediction0.2% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.2%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

89.4

Community Peer Score

6.4

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Jun 25, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Syrian Democratic Forces

As the Russian military loses its grip in Syria, the US considers pulling its troops

Business Insider•Feb 13, 2025

Russia, North Korea To Amass 150K-Strong Force on NATO's Doorstep: Zelensky

Newsweek•Feb 13, 2025

Russia could lose key military bases in post-Assad Syria. Here are 3 potential scenarios for its presence.

Business Insider•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

8.5%

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

Comments

? comments