Question

Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?

Resolved :No0.2%

18 comments18

Total Forecasters201

Community Prediction0.2% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.2%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

89.4

Community Peer Score

6.4

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Syrian Democratic Forces

Could Russia destabilize itself?

American Thinker•Dec 16, 2024

The D Brief: Israel pounds Syrian military sites; Taiwan gets tanks; Will AI firms eat the Pentagon?; One dead on Fort Eisenhower; and just a bit more.

Defense One•Dec 17, 2024

December 11, 2024: Syria civil war news

CNN•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

10%

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Comments

? comments