Question

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

25 comments25

Total Forecasters362

Community Prediction10% (5% - 20%)

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50%

community: 10%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

European Union

Accession of Turkey to the EU

Iraq

Georgia (country)

US presidential election

NATO

Libya

Ukraine–NATO relations

United States

New START

Trump vowed to end the war in Ukraine quickly but Moscow and Kyiv are digging in before any talks

Associated Press•Jan 18, 2025

Will US President-elect Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war in 100 days?

Al Jazeera•Jan 20, 2025

Russia-Iran treaty will raise the stakes for Trump’s administration

CNN•Jan 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

2032-06-10

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

European Union

Accession of Turkey to the EU

Iraq

Georgia (country)

US presidential election

NATO

Libya

Ukraine–NATO relations

United States

New START

Trump vowed to end the war in Ukraine quickly but Moscow and Kyiv are digging in before any talks

Associated Press•Jan 18, 2025

Will US President-elect Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war in 100 days?

Al Jazeera•Jan 20, 2025

Russia-Iran treaty will raise the stakes for Trump’s administration

CNN•Jan 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

2032-06-10

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%