🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?

7
11
Total Forecasters62
Community Prediction28% (20% - 39%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 28%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Metaculus-PartnersAlyssaStevens
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
Hwasong-15
North Korea and weapons of mass destruction
Nuclear Threat Initiative
Geneva Protocol
Kim Jong-un
Chemical Weapons Convention
Joe Biden
North Korea

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