Question

Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters62

Community Prediction28% (20% - 39%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 28%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Jun 25, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2050

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

Hwasong-15

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Nuclear Threat Initiative

Geneva Protocol

Kim Jong-un

Chemical Weapons Convention

Joe Biden

North Korea

North Korea Fires Hypersonic Missile in First Weapons Test of 2025

Newsweek•Jan 26, 2025

Kim's North Korea Fires Nuclear-Capable Missiles: Photos

Newsweek•Jan 27, 2025

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons Provides a Way to Avert Nuclear Catastrophe

OpEdNews•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

70%

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