Question

Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters63

Community Prediction26% (20% - 37%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 26%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Jun 25, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2050

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

Hwasong-15

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Nuclear Threat Initiative

Geneva Protocol

Kim Jong-un

Chemical Weapons Convention

Joe Biden

North Korea

Nuclear weapons: dangerous threat or just a menace?

American Thinker•Mar 4, 2025

North Korea could have more nukes than the UK by 2035 and may already have the ability to detonate a nuclear weapon over a US city, analysts warn

Daily Mail•Mar 5, 2025

A Single Drone Can Turn the “Peaceful Atom” Into World War 3

CounterPunch•Mar 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

25%

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

70%

Comments

? comments