Question

Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?

Resolved :No0.1%

7 comments7

Total Forecasters132

Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 1%)

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50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

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97.1

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1.7

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Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

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If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

20.9%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

0.3%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Kim Jong-un

United States

Science

Iran expands weaponization capabilities critical for employing nuclear bomb

FOX News•Dec 20, 2024

We Are One-Quarter Through War's Last Century

OpEdNews•Dec 21, 2024

Iranian Dissident Group Exposes Regime’s ‘Intensified’ Nuclear Detonation Efforts, Warns of Rapid Dash Toward Bomb

Breitbart•Dec 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

20.9%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

0.3%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?

Make a Prediction

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Comments

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?