Question

Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?

Resolved :No

7 comments7

Total Forecasters132

Community Prediction0.1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

97.1

Community Peer Score

1.7

median 0.1%mean 1.6%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Kim Jong-un

United States

Science

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

20.9%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Kim Jong-un

United States

Science

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•Nov 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

20.9%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%