Question

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

45 comments45

Total Forecasters139

Community Prediction1.02

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>50k

...

49.3%

1.017

3.413

1.5%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

7.56

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

20%

How many nuclear weapons will exist globally in 2050?

10.9k

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

China Will Have Four Nuclear Powered Aircraft Carriers by 2035

•Nov 11, 2024

China Warned About US Nuclear Missile Test: Pentagon

Newsweek•Nov 13, 2024

Ukraine Could Build its Own Nuclear Bombs in Months: Report

Breitbart•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

7.56

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

20%

How many nuclear weapons will exist globally in 2050?

10.9k