Question

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?

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Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction0.219 (0.0316 - 0.587)

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0.03163

0.2186

0.5866

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Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

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Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

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OpEdNews•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0.0269

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

0.427

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

After US ATACMS Strike on Strategic Target Russia Announces To Retaliate

Lew Rockwell•Dec 13, 2024

We Are One-Quarter Through War's Last Century

OpEdNews•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0.0269

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

0.427

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What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?

Make a Prediction

If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

Comments

If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?