Question

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction0.219

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

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0.03163

0.2186

0.5866

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

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Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0.0269

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

0.427

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

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If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0.0269

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

0.427