Question

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?

Total Forecasters32

Community Prediction0.178 (0.0401 - 0.519)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	0.04009	0.1777	0.5186
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	0.04009	—
median	0.1777	—
upper 75%	0.5186	—

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Jun 25, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2050

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If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?

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0.46

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