📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?

Resolved :21.92
15
27
Total Forecasters107
Community Prediction1.92 (1.16 - 2.4)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>20
...
...
...
...
1.158
1.922
2.398
0.1%

What was the final result?2

Community Baseline Score
108.0
Community Peer Score
20.4
Authors:
Metaculus-PartnersAlyssaStevens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
2021-2025 Leaderboard
China
United Kingdom
India
Pakistan
France
North Korea and weapons of mass destruction
Federation of American Scientists
United States
Israel

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