Question

How many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters21

Community Prediction8.31

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>300

...

31.5%

8.31

30.44

0.8%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Tropical upper tropospheric trough

Environmental science

Climate change denial

Black carbon

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If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

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If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

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Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Tropical upper tropospheric trough

Environmental science

Climate change denial

Black carbon

Does it matter how much the United States reduces its carbon dioxide emissions if China doesn’t do the same?

•Nov 14, 2024

Reducing Emissions to Lessen Climate Change Would Yield Dramatic Health Benefits by 2030 – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

•Nov 14, 2024

Record carbon dioxide emissions impeding progress on meeting climate goals

•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

24.8%

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%