Question

How many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters21

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lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>300

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31.5%

8.31

30.44

0.8%

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Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

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Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Tropical upper tropospheric trough

Environmental science

Climate change denial

Black carbon

Coalition’s nuclear plan will hit Earth with 1.7bn extra tonnes of CO2 before 2050, experts warn

Guardian•Dec 16, 2024

90 Seconds to Midnight: Surviving the Atomic Age | Opinion

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Why is the U.S. increasing the risk of nuclear war?

Strategic Culture•Dec 19, 2024

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