Question

When will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?

15 comments15

Total Forecasters87

Community Prediction2028-10-06 (2025-04-16 - 2034-12-11)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2099-12-29

...

2025-04-16 21:42

2028-10-06 15:19

2034-12-11 22:30

1.2%

Authors:

ege_erdil

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Economy & Business

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Great Recession in the US

St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index

United States

Financial crisis of 2007–08

It's not just the US. Housing around the world is more expensive than it was prior to the 2008 peak, the IMF says.

Business Insider•Dec 11, 2024

There's a sign flashing in the labor market that the US may be slipping into a recession, SocGen says

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Crypto Could Barrel Us Into Another Financial Crisis

Jacobin•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression?

0.42

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

24.1%

Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months?

16.1%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

ege_erdil

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Economy & Business

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Great Recession in the US

St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index

United States

Financial crisis of 2007–08

It's not just the US. Housing around the world is more expensive than it was prior to the 2008 peak, the IMF says.

Business Insider•Dec 11, 2024

There's a sign flashing in the labor market that the US may be slipping into a recession, SocGen says

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Crypto Could Barrel Us Into Another Financial Crisis

Jacobin•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression?

0.42

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

24.1%

Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months?

16.1%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

When will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?

Make a Prediction

What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression?

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months?

Comments

What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression?

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months?

What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression?

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months?

What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression?

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months?