Question

Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?

Resolved :Yes

165 comments165

Total Forecasters163

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

0.5

Community Peer Score

0.1

median 99.0%mean 98.4%

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

45%

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

10%

Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

77%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan

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Afghan accused of plotting terror attack worked for the CIA

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Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

45%

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

10%

Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

77%