Question

Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?

Resolved :No

32 comments32

Total Forecasters116

Community Prediction16%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 16%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

66.4

Community Peer Score

9.1

median 16.0%mean 17.9%

Authors:

alexrjl

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

1.4%

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

What will the age-adjusted mortality rate be in England and Wales in 2051?

815

Comments

? comments

Authors:

alexrjl

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

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Daily Mail•Nov 15, 2024

Infant mortality rises for third consecutive year in England

Guardian•Nov 15, 2024

300 people a DAY are dying in poverty – and they’re more likely to be working at the time

Canary•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

1.4%

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

What will the age-adjusted mortality rate be in England and Wales in 2051?

815