Question

Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?

Resolved :Yes55%

28 comments28

Total Forecasters97

Community Prediction55% (49% - 65%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 55%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

19.5

Community Peer Score

5.8

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Jul 18, 2021

Closes:

Aug 31, 2021

Resolves:

Dec 25, 2021

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Epidemiology

COVID Map Update Reveals Worst Hit US States

Newsweek•Jan 20, 2025

COVID-19: It's been five years since the first case in America. What's it like today?

USA Today•Jan 20, 2025

How bad is the quad-demic where YOU live? Map reveals US virus hotspots

Daily Mail•Jan 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

117k

Comments

? comments