Question

Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?

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Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction28%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 28%

median 28.0%mean 29.9%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

27%

Comments

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

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Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

27%