Question

Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?

23 comments23

Total Forecasters32

Community Prediction45% (41% - 49%)

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50%

community: 45%

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Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

U.S. Government Assessment of the Syrian Government's Use of Chemical Weapons on August 21, 2013

Syrian civil war

Ghouta chemical attack

Syria's Chemical Weapons Prompts Emergency Meeting of Global Monitor

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Chemical weapons watchdog urges probe in Syria after al-Assad toppled

Al Jazeera•Dec 13, 2024

Dec 14th 2024 Edition

Economist•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?

Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?

11%

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

U.S. Government Assessment of the Syrian Government's Use of Chemical Weapons on August 21, 2013

Syrian civil war

Ghouta chemical attack

Syria's Chemical Weapons Prompts Emergency Meeting of Global Monitor

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Chemical weapons watchdog urges probe in Syria after al-Assad toppled

Al Jazeera•Dec 13, 2024

Dec 14th 2024 Edition

Economist•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?

Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?

11%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?

Make a Prediction

Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?

Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

Comments

Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?

Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?

Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?

Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?