Question

When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?

Resolved :Oct 29, 2021

5 comments5

Total Forecasters33

Community Prediction2021-11-03

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2022-07-31

...

2021-10-27 17:26

2021-11-03 16:42

2021-11-19 17:18

0.7%

What was the final result?Oct 29, 2021

Community Baseline Score

76.5

Community Peer Score

38.6

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Keep Virginia Safe Tournament

Keep Virginia Safe: Round 2

Health & Pandemics

Food and Drug Administration

COVID-19

Moderna

Janssen Pharmaceutica

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.06

Before 2032, will an intranasal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

95%

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