Question

When will the Taliban take Kabul?

Resolved :Aug 15, 20212021-08-16

39 comments39

Total Forecasters77

Community Prediction2021-08-16 (2021-08-14 - 2021-08-21)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2022-12-30

...

2021-08-14 01:31

2021-08-16 15:58

2021-08-21 01:36

0.2%

What was the final result?Aug 15, 2021

Community Baseline Score

6.2

Community Peer Score

2.1

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

War in Afghanistan (2001–present)

Arg (Kabul)

China Urges 'Stability' in Syria as Victorious Uyghur Rebels Threaten Xi

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Timeline of how rebels toppled Assad’s regime in less than two weeks

CNN•Dec 15, 2024

Who are the Syrian rebels that have toppled Assad and taken Damascus?

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

10%

Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

77.1%

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

45%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

War in Afghanistan (2001–present)

Arg (Kabul)

China Urges 'Stability' in Syria as Victorious Uyghur Rebels Threaten Xi

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Timeline of how rebels toppled Assad’s regime in less than two weeks

CNN•Dec 15, 2024

Who are the Syrian rebels that have toppled Assad and taken Damascus?

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

10%

Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

77.1%

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

45%

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When will the Taliban take Kabul?

Make a Prediction

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

Comments

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?