Question

When will the Taliban take Kabul?

Resolved :Aug 15, 2021

39 comments39

Total Forecasters77

Community Prediction2021-08-16

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2022-12-30

...

2021-08-14 01:31

2021-08-16 15:58

2021-08-21 01:36

0.2%

What was the final result?Aug 15, 2021

Community Baseline Score

6.2

Community Peer Score

2.1

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

War in Afghanistan (2001–present)

Arg (Kabul)

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

10%

Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

77.1%

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

45%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

War in Afghanistan (2001–present)

Arg (Kabul)

Taliban to attend UN Cop29 in Baku in a first after Afghanistan takeover

Independent•Nov 11, 2024

The Taliban will attend a U.N. climate conference for the first time

NBC•Nov 11, 2024

How the Taliban are seeking to reshape Afghanistan’s schools to push their ideology

The Conversation•Nov 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

10%

Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

77.1%

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

45%