Question

Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?

Resolved :No

48 comments48

Total Forecasters135

Community Prediction10%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

77.5

Community Peer Score

3.2

median 10.0%mean 11.4%

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

United States Diplomatic and Consular Staff in Tehran

Marine Security Guard

United States

When will the United States reopen its embassy in Kabul Afghanistan?

2028-07-15

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%

Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?

28%

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