Question

Will New York City experience a hurricane before 2030?

13 comments13

Total Forecasters70

Community Prediction61.8% (50% - 74.7%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 61.8%

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Dec 7, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Environment & Climate

New York City

Meteorology

Natural disaster

1938 New England hurricane

Hurricane Sandy

Saffir–Simpson scale

New York Getting Hit With Winter Storm—Live Tracker

Newsweek•Feb 13, 2025

California Map Reveals Cities That Could Be Underwater in 2050

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Forget global warming and rising NYC waters — New Yorkers still love living by the shore

New York Post•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

10.9

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

10%

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

52%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Dec 7, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Environment & Climate

New York City

Meteorology

Natural disaster

1938 New England hurricane

Hurricane Sandy

Saffir–Simpson scale

New York Getting Hit With Winter Storm—Live Tracker

Newsweek•Feb 13, 2025

California Map Reveals Cities That Could Be Underwater in 2050

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Forget global warming and rising NYC waters — New Yorkers still love living by the shore

New York Post•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

10.9

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

10%

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

52%