Question

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

53 comments53

Total Forecasters222

Community Prediction8% (5% - 12%)

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50%

community: 8%

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Authors:

Charles

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Taiwan

China

Hopes for 'reunification' a fact of life on China's window to Taiwan

Raw Story•Dec 13, 2024

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

China's Intensified Military Manoeuvres Spark International Concerns

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

66%

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

44.5%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Charles

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Taiwan

China

Hopes for 'reunification' a fact of life on China's window to Taiwan

Raw Story•Dec 13, 2024

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

China's Intensified Military Manoeuvres Spark International Concerns

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

66%

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

44.5%

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Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Make a Prediction

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Comments

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?