Question

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

Total Forecasters60

Community Prediction8.58 (1.99 - 218)

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weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>30k
community	1.993	8.579	217.9	2.7%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	1.993	—
median	8.579	—
upper 75%	217.9	—
Upper bound
>30k	2.7%	—

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners Sylvain

Opened:

Aug 23, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2055

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

China

United Kingdom

India

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Pakistan

France

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

United States

Israel

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

1.04

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

23%

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

25%

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