Question

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters60

Community Prediction7.56

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>30k

...

1.843

7.555

225.4

3.0%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners Sylvain

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

China

United Kingdom

India

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Pakistan

France

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

United States

Israel

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

1.02

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

20%

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners Sylvain

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

China

United Kingdom

India

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Pakistan

France

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

United States

Israel

China Warned About US Nuclear Missile Test: Pentagon

Newsweek•Nov 13, 2024

Ukraine Could Build its Own Nuclear Bombs in Months: Report

Breitbart•Nov 14, 2024

Kim Jong Un Calls for Unlimited Nuclear Weapons Expansion

Newsweek•Nov 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

1.02

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

20%

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%