Question

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

22 comments22

Total Forecasters136

Community Prediction80% (65% - 85%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

Authors:

Charles

Opened:

Sep 25, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2032

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

US dollar

Tesla

Biggest Risk in A.I. Is ‘Missing Out,’ Says Google CEO Sundar Pichai

Observer (NY)•Feb 12, 2025

OpenAI boss Sam Altman says human-level intelligence is coming – and it won’t be fair

Independent•Feb 12, 2025

DeepSeek: The Starter Gun For Physical AI Just Got Fired

Forbes•Feb 13, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

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If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

69%

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

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