Question

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction42.1% (30% - 47%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 42.1%

Authors:

wobblybobby

Opened:

Oct 3, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2027

Provinces of Afghanistan

United States

NATO

USAID Pays the Terrorists Who Kill Us

PJ Media•Feb 16, 2025

'Islamic State Will Capitalize' After Musk's DOGE Shutters USAID

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Opinion | It’s Time for the U.S. to Reach Out to the Taliban

New York Times•Feb 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

10%

Will Turkey recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

65%

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

25%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

wobblybobby

Opened:

Oct 3, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2027

Provinces of Afghanistan

United States

NATO

USAID Pays the Terrorists Who Kill Us

PJ Media•Feb 16, 2025

'Islamic State Will Capitalize' After Musk's DOGE Shutters USAID

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Opinion | It’s Time for the U.S. to Reach Out to the Taliban

New York Times•Feb 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

10%

Will Turkey recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

65%

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

25%