Question

Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?

Resolved :Yes

18 comments18

Total Forecasters137

Community Prediction45%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 45%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

21.4

Community Peer Score

1.3

median 45.0%mean 45.5%

Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

US House of Representatives

2020 United States Census

Democratic Party (US)

Elections in the United States

2024 Elections (US)

Republican Party (US)

2018 US House of Representatives elections

Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives?

99.9%

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

39%

What party will win the most seats in the 2025 Republic of Ireland Parliamentary election?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

US House of Representatives

2020 United States Census

Democratic Party (US)

Elections in the United States

2024 Elections (US)

Republican Party (US)

2018 US House of Representatives elections

Size of Republican House majority to be decided by 5 remaining uncalled races

FOX News•Nov 16, 2024

How Democrat gerrymandering has made it nearly impossible for Republicans to make even bigger gains in the House

New York Post•Nov 16, 2024

Three undecided House races will determine size of GOP’s narrow majority

CNN•Nov 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives?

99.9%

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

39%