Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

Forecast and Share Your Reasoning With GiveWell by January 1st — $3,500 in prizes

There's still time to compete for $3,500 in commenting prizes: Learn how you can help GiveWell help others.

M

Question

What will the space traveler fatality rate due to spacecraft anomalies be in the 2020's?

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Total Forecasters26
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53.2%
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0.1776
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Authors:
GoldbergMachinations
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Space
Economy & Business
Technology
2021-2025 Leaderboard
SpaceShipTwo
SpaceX reusable launch system
List of space travelers by name
US Department of Defense
Virgin Galactic
New Shepard
Commercial astronaut
Tiangong program
Blue Origin

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