Question
When will a language model be developed that, when tested, yields approximately human-level output?
Total Forecasters36
Community Prediction2024-06-05 (2023-05-05 - 2027-02-10)
Make a Prediction
CDF
weight:
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <2021-10-15 | 0.1% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 2023 | — |
| median | 2024 | — |
| upper 75% | 2027 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2099-12-26 | 0.6% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Sep 24, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Sep 24, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
