Question

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

15 comments15

Total Forecasters76

Community Prediction45%

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community: 44.5%

median 44.5%mean 42.6%

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

67%

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

10%

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

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Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

67%

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

10%