📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?

Resolved :13545.6
8
30
Total Forecasters41
Community Prediction45.6 (24.2 - 78.6)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>240
...
...
...
...
24.24
45.58
78.62
1.0%

What was the final result?135

Community Baseline Score
-31.1
Community Peer Score
56.6
Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Law
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Elizabeth Holmes
United States Federal Sentencing Guidelines
Theranos

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