Question

Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?

25 comments25

Total Forecasters68

Community Prediction5% (2% - 13%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Elections

Geopolitics

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Abiy Ahmed

Tigray Region

Ethiopia

Justin Trudeau is facing a political crisis made worse by Donald Trump. Can he survive as Canada’s leader?

CNN•Dec 17, 2024

How Trump’s tariff threat pushed Canada’s Trudeau to brink of resignation

Al Jazeera•Dec 17, 2024

Benjamin Netanyahu Is on Trial for His Political Life

Jacobin•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?

99%

Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?

0.5%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Elections

Geopolitics

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Abiy Ahmed

Tigray Region

Ethiopia

Justin Trudeau is facing a political crisis made worse by Donald Trump. Can he survive as Canada’s leader?

CNN•Dec 17, 2024

How Trump’s tariff threat pushed Canada’s Trudeau to brink of resignation

Al Jazeera•Dec 17, 2024

Benjamin Netanyahu Is on Trial for His Political Life

Jacobin•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?

99%

Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?

0.5%