Question

Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?

Resolved :No1%

27 comments27

Total Forecasters69

Community Prediction1% (0.1% - 5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

8.4

Community Peer Score

49.4

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Sep 29, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Elections

Geopolitics

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Abiy Ahmed

Tigray Region

Ethiopia

'This Is Life and Death': Trump's USAID Shakeup Threatens Millions in Sudan

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

To avoid another conflict in the Horn of Africa, now is the time to act

Al Jazeera•Feb 18, 2025

What could Trump’s return to the White House mean for Latin America?

Al Jazeera•Feb 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

35.1%

Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?

35%

Will there be a successful coup in Cameroon before 2026?

18.4%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Sep 29, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Elections

Geopolitics

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Abiy Ahmed

Tigray Region

Ethiopia

'This Is Life and Death': Trump's USAID Shakeup Threatens Millions in Sudan

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

To avoid another conflict in the Horn of Africa, now is the time to act

Al Jazeera•Feb 18, 2025

What could Trump’s return to the White House mean for Latin America?

Al Jazeera•Feb 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

35.1%

Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?

35%

Will there be a successful coup in Cameroon before 2026?

18.4%