Question

How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?

24 comments24

Total Forecasters35

Community Prediction2.56e-1

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<1e-1

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

5.8%

1.927e-1

2.561e-1

3.287e-1

Authors:

emilowk

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Genome-wide association study

When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

2029-04-21

Polygenic Selection of Embryos

By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?

58%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

emilowk

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Genome-wide association study

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When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

2029-04-21

Polygenic Selection of Embryos

By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?

58%