Question

Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation on a nation's capital by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere by 2024?

Resolved :Annulled

1 comment1

Total Forecasters86

Community Prediction16%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 16%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

median 16.0%mean 17.3%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Countervalue

Nuclear winter

Environmental science

Counterforce

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Short- and long-term effects of nuclear war

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Countervalue

Nuclear winter

Environmental science

Counterforce

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

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BOOM: Russia Updates Its Nuclear Doctrine, Pushing the World Closer to Armageddon

PJ Media•Nov 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Short- and long-term effects of nuclear war

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28