Question

Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?

Resolved:Annulled

19 comments19

Total Forecasters118

Community Prediction

50%

(25% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 50%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Oct 7, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Mar 4, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 9, 2021

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Iran

Arms Control Association

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Federation of American Scientists

Experts warn Iran’s nuclear double-talk designed to buy time, undermine US pressure

FOX News•Apr 4, 2025

Military clash ‘almost inevitable’ if Iran nuclear talks fail, France says

Al Jazeera•Apr 3, 2025

Trump Moves 'Nuclear Capable' Bombers to Within Striking Distance of Iran

Lew Rockwell•Apr 3, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

75%

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

25%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Oct 7, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Mar 4, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 9, 2021

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Iran

Arms Control Association

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Federation of American Scientists

Experts warn Iran’s nuclear double-talk designed to buy time, undermine US pressure

FOX News•Apr 4, 2025

Military clash ‘almost inevitable’ if Iran nuclear talks fail, France says

Al Jazeera•Apr 3, 2025

Trump Moves 'Nuclear Capable' Bombers to Within Striking Distance of Iran

Lew Rockwell•Apr 3, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

75%

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

25%

MetaculusM

Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?

Make a Prediction

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

Comments

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

We use cookies 🍪 to understand how you use Metaculus and to improve your experience.