M

Question

Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?

Resolved :Annulled
10
23
Total Forecasters165
Community Prediction5%

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 5%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

median 5.0%mean 9.1%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooksTomL
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Nuclear weapons testing
Peaceful nuclear explosion

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