Question

Will the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?

Resolved :Annulled

15 comments15

Total Forecasters124

Community Prediction17%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 17%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

median 17.0%mean 17.1%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Physics

Military science

Nuclear weapon

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Physics

Military science

Nuclear weapon

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If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%