🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will >2 countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?

Resolved :Annulled20%
1
Total Forecasters38
Community Prediction20% (15% - 37%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 20%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
TomL
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Nuclear Technology & Risks
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Physics
Military science
China
Nuclear weapon
United States
North Korea

Comments

? comments