Question

Will >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated on or over their territories by 2024, if any country offensively detonates a nuclear weapon by then?

Resolved :Annulled34%

1 comment1

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction34% (21% - 35%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 34%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Oct 7, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Nuclear Technology & Risks

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If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2035-12-11

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Oct 7, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Donald Trump Makes Major Nuclear Weapons Announcement

Newsweek•Feb 14, 2025

Inside secret US lab where US will begin testing nukes again amid fears of WWIII

Daily Mail•Feb 16, 2025

Chilling map reveals where 75% of US population could perish in event of a nuclear attack

Daily Mail•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2035-12-11