Question

Will >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated on or over their territories by 2024, if any country offensively detonates a nuclear weapon by then?

Resolved :Annulled

1 comment1

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction34%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 34%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

median 34.0%mean 28.7%

Authors:

TomL

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Resolves:

Nuclear Technology & Risks

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

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Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Technology & Risks

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If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28