Question

Will >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated on or over their territories by 2024, if any country offensively detonates a nuclear weapon by then?

Resolved :Annulled34%

1 comment1

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction34% (21% - 35%)

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50%

community: 34%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

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TomL

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Nuclear Technology & Risks

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If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2036-04-02

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

US Shares Update on China's Nuclear Arsenal

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Pentagon Warns China Has Tripled Its Nuclear Arsenal

Breitbart•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2036-04-02

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Will >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated on or over their territories by 2024, if any country offensively detonates a nuclear weapon by then?

Make a Prediction

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Comments

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?