Question

Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?

Resolved :No0.1%

13 comments13

Total Forecasters191

Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 1%)

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50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

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United States

Russian Armed Forces

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Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

14%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

United States

Russian Armed Forces

NATO

News Analysis: Russian general’s assassination in Moscow: Chilling new phase in Ukraine war?

•Dec 18, 2024

Map Shows Possible WWIII Frontlines if Russia Invaded Europe

Newsweek•Dec 14, 2024

Daily Mail•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

14%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

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Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?

Make a Prediction

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Comments

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?