Question

Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?

Resolved :No

13 comments13

Total Forecasters191

Community Prediction0.1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

74.7

Community Peer Score

9.5

median 0.1%mean 1.1%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Russian Armed Forces

NATO

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

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