Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?

Resolved :No4%
11
6
Total Forecasters78
Community Prediction4% (3% - 8%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 4%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
93.7
Community Peer Score
4.1
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooksTomL
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Iran
2019–20 Persian Gulf crisis
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
United States
Iran–United States relations

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