Question

Will there be a US-China war before 2035?

33 comments33

Total Forecasters428

Community Prediction9%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 9%

median 9.0%mean 14.9%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Will there be a US-China war before 2050?

12%

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

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•Nov 11, 2024

China advances toward nuclear-powered aircraft carrier with new reactor prototype

•Nov 11, 2024

China advances toward nuclear-powered aircraft carrier with new reactor prototype

FOX News•Nov 11, 2024

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Will there be a US-China war before 2050?

12%

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%