Question

Will there be a US-China war before 2035?

34 comments34

Total Forecasters432

Community Prediction10% (5% - 20%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

China Intensifies Military Presence Near Taiwan

•Dec 13, 2024

China is getting ready to take on Trump

Spectator (UK)•Dec 16, 2024

China continues nuclear buildup, has strengthened ties to Russia, Defense Dept report says

CBS•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a US-China war before 2050?

12%

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

China Intensifies Military Presence Near Taiwan

•Dec 13, 2024

China is getting ready to take on Trump

Spectator (UK)•Dec 16, 2024

China continues nuclear buildup, has strengthened ties to Russia, Defense Dept report says

CBS•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a US-China war before 2050?

12%

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Will there be a US-China war before 2035?

Make a Prediction

Will there be a US-China war before 2050?

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Comments

Will there be a US-China war before 2050?

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Will there be a US-China war before 2050?

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Will there be a US-China war before 2050?

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?