Question

How many HEMP attacks will occur by 2030, if at least one does?

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Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction3.87 (1.84 - 9.48)

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lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>1k

...

1.842

3.875

9.476

0.6%

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MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

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Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Physics

Nuclear electromagnetic pulse

Military science

Electronics

United States

How To Prepare for Nuclear War

Lew Rockwell•Dec 13, 2024

Elon Predicts One Million Humans Will Be Augmented By Neuralink By 2030

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Takeaways from the AP’s reporting on nuclear bunkers

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

39.9%

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

67%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Physics

Nuclear electromagnetic pulse

Military science

Electronics

United States

How To Prepare for Nuclear War

Lew Rockwell•Dec 13, 2024

Elon Predicts One Million Humans Will Be Augmented By Neuralink By 2030

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Takeaways from the AP’s reporting on nuclear bunkers

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

39.9%

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

67%

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How many HEMP attacks will occur by 2030, if at least one does?

Make a Prediction

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

Comments

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?