Question

How many HEMP attacks will occur by 2030, if at least one does?

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Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction3.87

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>1k

...

1.842

3.875

9.476

0.6%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Physics

Nuclear electromagnetic pulse

Military science

Electronics

United States

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

39.9%

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

67%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Physics

Nuclear electromagnetic pulse

Military science

Electronics

United States

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If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

39.9%

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

67%