M

Question

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

2
1
Total Forecasters36
Community Prediction2%

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 2%
median 2.0%mean 7.5%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Authors:
MetaculusOutlookshavlickova.blanka
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Physics
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
Military science
Nuclear weapon

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