Question

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters40

Community Prediction63% (41% - 70%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 63%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Environmental science

Inside secret US lab where US will begin testing nukes again amid fears of WWIII

Daily Mail•Feb 16, 2025

What's Wrong With Nuclear Weaponry and Energy

OpEdNews•Feb 16, 2025

Chilling map reveals where 75% of US population could perish in event of a nuclear attack

Daily Mail•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

80%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

39.5%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Environmental science

Inside secret US lab where US will begin testing nukes again amid fears of WWIII

Daily Mail•Feb 16, 2025

What's Wrong With Nuclear Weaponry and Energy

OpEdNews•Feb 16, 2025

Chilling map reveals where 75% of US population could perish in event of a nuclear attack

Daily Mail•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

80%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

39.5%