MetaculusM

Question

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction31% (20% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 31%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Feb 1, 2030

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Opinion | The Fifth Anniversary of the Covid Pandemic Reveals New Lessons

New York Times•Feb 27, 2025

Revealed: Nostradamus' terrifying 2025 'plague' prediction that may be coming true

Daily Mail•Feb 27, 2025

50% GDP Collapse Ahead? Actuaries Sound The Alarm—Who’s Listening?

Forbes•Mar 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Feb 1, 2030

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Opinion | The Fifth Anniversary of the Covid Pandemic Reveals New Lessons

New York Times•Feb 27, 2025

Revealed: Nostradamus' terrifying 2025 'plague' prediction that may be coming true

Daily Mail•Feb 27, 2025

50% GDP Collapse Ahead? Actuaries Sound The Alarm—Who’s Listening?

Forbes•Mar 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch