Question

If there's a fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2024, will the Metaculus community prediction on the question about that be >20% for a day during the week before the detonation?

Resolved :Annulled50%

5 comments5

Total Forecasters87

Community Prediction50% (30% - 60%)

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50%

community: 50%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

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havlickova.blanka

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At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

67%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2036-04-02

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

How To Prepare for Nuclear War

Lew Rockwell•Dec 13, 2024

Climate Change Trial at The Hague

CounterPunch•Dec 13, 2024

We Are One-Quarter Through War's Last Century

OpEdNews•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

67%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2036-04-02

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

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If there's a fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2024, will the Metaculus community prediction on the question about that be >20% for a day during the week before the detonation?

Make a Prediction

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

Comments

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?