M

Question

If there's a fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2024, will the Metaculus community prediction on the question about that be >20% for a day during the week before the detonation?

Resolved :Annulled50%
Total Forecasters87
Community Prediction50% (30% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 50%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

Opened:Nov 18, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolves:Jan 1, 2024

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