Question

Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation by then?

Resolved :Annulled77%

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Community Prediction77% (73% - 80%)

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50%

community: 77%

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What proportion of offensive nuclear detonations by 2030 will be of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, if there's at least one offensive detonation by then?

0.835

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2036-04-02

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Strategic nuclear weapon

Physics

Military science

Security

Tactical nuclear weapon

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

How To Prepare for Nuclear War

Lew Rockwell•Dec 13, 2024

Putin Reveals When Russia May Use Nuclear Weapons Under New Doctrine

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What proportion of offensive nuclear detonations by 2030 will be of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, if there's at least one offensive detonation by then?

0.835

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2036-04-02

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Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation by then?

Make a Prediction

What proportion of offensive nuclear detonations by 2030 will be of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, if there's at least one offensive detonation by then?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Comments

What proportion of offensive nuclear detonations by 2030 will be of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, if there's at least one offensive detonation by then?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

What proportion of offensive nuclear detonations by 2030 will be of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, if there's at least one offensive detonation by then?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

What proportion of offensive nuclear detonations by 2030 will be of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, if there's at least one offensive detonation by then?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?